{"id":4245,"date":"2023-12-16T12:54:25","date_gmt":"2023-12-16T11:54:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/?p=4245"},"modified":"2023-12-16T12:54:28","modified_gmt":"2023-12-16T11:54:28","slug":"taux-directeur-de-bam-prolonger-la-pause-ou-linterrompre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/?p=4245","title":{"rendered":"Taux directeur de BAM : prolonger la \u201cpause\u201d ou l\u2019interrompre ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par :Chaine Alarab – MAP
Alors que Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) se pr\u00e9pare \u00e0 d\u00e9voiler son taux directeur mardi prochain, les analystes financiers guettent la nouvelle direction que prendra la Banque Centrale : prolongera-t-elle la \u201cpause\u201d avec un taux directeur qui reste \u00e0 3% ou op\u00e9rera-t-elle \u00e0 son ajustement ?
Ce taux, ayant suivi une trajectoire prudente depuis la crise financi\u00e8re de 2008, s\u2019est maintenu sous le seuil critique de 3,5%, connaissant une diminution jusqu\u2019\u00e0 1,5% en juin 2022 avant de remonter \u00e0 3% l\u2019ann\u00e9e suivante, une s\u00e9rie de man\u0153uvres refl\u00e9tant la r\u00e9activit\u00e9 de la BAM face aux fluctuations \u00e9conomiques.
En effet, toutes les banques centrales du monde, y compris Bank Al-Maghrib, se rappellent de la crise asiatique de 1997, o\u00f9 des politiques mon\u00e9taires inattendues ont engendr\u00e9 des ondes de choc \u00e9conomiques dans les pays voisins, un \u00e9v\u00e9nement historique qui incite \u00e0 une prudence accrue dans la gestion actuelle des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour \u00e9viter de r\u00e9p\u00e9ter des erreurs pass\u00e9es et assurer la stabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re globale.
Dans le contexte actuel o\u00f9 l\u2019inflation, ayant \u00e9tir\u00e9 son ombre mena\u00e7ante sur l\u2019Europe et les \u00c9tats-Unis, commence \u00e0 s\u2019estomper, les \u201cbanques des banques\u201d que sont la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne (BCE) et la R\u00e9serve F\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (FED) persistent dans leur d\u00e9cision de maintenir les taux directeurs actuels, une posture de prudence qui, bien que louable dans son essence, soul\u00e8ve des inqui\u00e9tudes quant \u00e0 son impact sur les finances publiques et les \u00e9conomies nationales, se pr\u00eatant ainsi \u00e0 un jeu d\u2019\u00e9quilibre d\u00e9licat entre la ma\u00eetrise de l\u2019inflation et la relance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie.
Cette m\u00eame posture des grandes banques semble \u00eatre la direction prochaine dans la politique mon\u00e9taire de BAM, d\u2019apr\u00e8s les r\u00e9centes analyses de Attijari Global Research (AGR), qui a mis en \u00e9vidence un consensus \u201cquasi-unanime\u201d des investisseurs financiers pour une stabilit\u00e9 du taux directeur.
Ainsi, l\u2019enqu\u00eate men\u00e9e aupr\u00e8s de 35 investisseurs, consid\u00e9r\u00e9s parmi les plus influents du march\u00e9 financier marocain, r\u00e9v\u00e8le que 96% d\u2019entre eux pr\u00e9voient un maintien du taux directeur de BAM, tandis que seulement 3% envisagent une diminution de 25 points de base, soulignant ainsi une tendance dominante vers la stabilit\u00e9 dans les anticipations des acteurs du march\u00e9.
D\u2019un avis similaire, l\u2019\u00e9conomiste et sp\u00e9cialiste des politiques publiques, Abdelghani Youmni, a soulign\u00e9 que les pr\u00e9visions les plus plausibles pour le taux directeur est son maintien \u00e0 3% car autant il faut soutenir la croissance \u00e9conomique avec des taux relativement accommodant, autant il faut cibler le taux de change et \u00e9viter la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation du dirham tout en choisissant un taux directeur qui prend en compte la valeur de l\u2019inflation pour \u00e9viter son envol\u00e9e.
Il ne faut pas se tromper de diagnostic, pr\u00e9cise l\u2019\u00e9conomiste, ce n\u2019est pas la baisse du \u201ctaux directeur \u00e0 2,5% qui va conduire \u00e0 une relance de la consommation et de l\u2019investissement\u2019, notant qu\u2019au contraire, elle conduira \u00e0 une baisse du dirham face au dollar et \u00e0 l\u2019euro, aggravant le d\u00e9ficit de notre balance commerciale, de notre dette ext\u00e9rieure et de la facture \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.
Et d\u2019ajouter que face \u00e0 une d\u00e9gradation du pouvoir d\u2019achat, de l\u2019augmentation de 11% des prix des produits alimentaires des biens durables et du ch\u00f4mage \u00e0 13,5%, la r\u00e9ponse n\u2019est pas la politique mon\u00e9taire.
Le taux directeur n\u2019a jamais affect\u00e9 l\u2019inflation quand elle est d\u2019origine import\u00e9e ou budg\u00e9taire, la poursuite de la hausse des prix et des co\u00fbts de production n\u2019est pas mon\u00e9taire mais budg\u00e9taire, a-t-il soulign\u00e9, expliquant que \u201cnous avons besoin d\u2019un effet cliquet sur la taxation des carburants pour inverser la courbe de l\u2019envol\u00e9e des prix et retrouver la r\u00e9silience de notre \u00e9conomie et prot\u00e9ger le dirham\u201d.
S\u2019alignant sur les pens\u00e9es du c\u00e9l\u00e8bre \u00e9conomiste britannique John Maynard Keynes, qui disait que \u201cl\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat est la r\u00e9compense pour la renonciation \u00e0 la liquidit\u00e9\u201d, M. Youmni a soulign\u00e9 que le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9el affecte toujours directement la croissance \u00e9conomique directement ou indirectement.
Au Maroc, le taux directeur n\u2019affecte pas positivement l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique mais s\u2019il augmente de mani\u00e8re d\u00e9mesur\u00e9, il conduit \u00e0 des d\u00e9faillances en cascade de l\u2019ensemble des agr\u00e9gats et de la sant\u00e9 financi\u00e8re des entreprises, la d\u00e9gradation de leur comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 et de leur capacit\u00e9 d\u2019emprunt et d\u2019investissement, a averti cet expert.
Pour ce qui est de l\u2019inflation, l\u2019effet est inverse, ce sont les spirales inflationnistes qui poussent les banques centrales \u00e0 r\u00e9guler avec le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat soit par la cr\u00e9ation ou la destruction de la monnaie afin de juguler l\u2019inflation, selon les explications th\u00e9oriques de M. Youmni. \u201cCependant, nous sommes bien loin des hyperinflations de la Turquie ou de l\u2019Argentine voire m\u00eame de l\u2019Egypte\u201d, a-t-il affirm\u00e9 d\u2019un air confiant.
Interrog\u00e9 sur l\u2019impact du taux directeur actuel sur la consommation des m\u00e9nages marocains, l\u2019\u00e9conomiste a clarifi\u00e9 sa vision en profondeur: \u201cNous serions injuste, si on passe sous silence la consommation, elle est au c\u0153ur de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique, elle d\u00e9pend \u00e0 la fois d\u2019une variable qualitative, le revenu disponible ou pouvoir d\u2019achat en d\u00e9gradation au Maroc \u00e0 cause d\u2019une s\u00e9rie de facteurs et de la confiance affect\u00e9e par l\u2019actualit\u00e9 g\u00e9opolitique, l\u2019\u00e9ventualit\u00e9 d\u2019une s\u00e9cheresse et d\u2019un besoin de relais pour lutter contre la chert\u00e9 de vie et retrouver la nature r\u00e9siliente de notre soci\u00e9t\u00e9\u201d.
Cette posture de prudence pr\u00e9vue par ces experts pour BAM rappelle ainsi l\u2019\u00e9poque de Paul Volcker \u00e0 la t\u00eate de la FED, vers la fin des ann\u00e9es 1970, o\u00f9, confront\u00e9 \u00e0 une inflation galopante, il a opt\u00e9 pour des hausses du taux directeur, une strat\u00e9gie qui, bien qu\u2019efficace pour dompter l\u2019inflation, a aussi eu pour cons\u00e9quence un ralentissement \u00e9conomique et la mont\u00e9e du ch\u00f4mage, d\u00e9montrant ainsi les d\u00e9fis que rencontrent les banques centrales dans leur qu\u00eate d\u2019\u00e9quilibre \u00e9conomique.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par :Chaine Alarab – MAPAlors que Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) se pr\u00e9pare \u00e0 d\u00e9voiler son taux directeur mardi prochain, les analystes<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4247,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"magazineBlocksPostFeaturedMedia":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB-150x150.jpg?v=1709053093","medium":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB-300x163.jpg?v=1709053093","medium_large":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB.jpg?v=1709053093","large":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB.jpg?v=1709053093","1536x1536":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB.jpg?v=1709053093","2048x2048":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB.jpg?v=1709053093","colormag-highlighted-post":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB-392x272.jpg?v=1709053093","colormag-featured-post-medium":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB-390x205.jpg?v=1709053093","colormag-featured-post-small":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB-130x90.jpg?v=1709053093","colormag-featured-image":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB.jpg?v=1709053093","colormag-default-news":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB-150x150.jpg?v=1709053093","colormag-featured-image-large":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB.jpg?v=1709053093","colormag-elementor-block-extra-large-thumbnail":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB.jpg?v=1709053093","colormag-elementor-grid-large-thumbnail":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB-600x340.jpg?v=1709053093","colormag-elementor-grid-small-thumbnail":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB-285x340.jpg?v=1709053093","colormag-elementor-grid-medium-large-thumbnail":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB-575x198.jpg?v=1709053093"},"magazineBlocksPostAuthor":{"name":"\u0642\u0646\u0627\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628","avatar":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1a8b6aef48e5cc80b735b0d414f872ef?s=96&d=mm&r=g"},"magazineBlocksPostCommentsNumber":"0","magazineBlocksPostExcerpt":"Par :Chaine Alarab – MAPAlors que Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) se pr\u00e9pare \u00e0 d\u00e9voiler son taux directeur mardi prochain, les analystes","magazineBlocksPostCategories":["\u00c9conomie"],"magazine_blocks_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB.jpg?v=1709053093",624,340,false],"medium":["https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB-300x163.jpg?v=1709053093",300,163,true],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/BANK-ALMAGHRIB-150x150.jpg?v=1709053093",150,150,true]},"magazine_blocks_author":{"display_name":"\u0642\u0646\u0627\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628","author_link":"https:\/\/alarabtv.info\/?author=3"},"magazine_blocks_comment":0,"magazine_blocks_author_image":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1a8b6aef48e5cc80b735b0d414f872ef?s=96&d=mm&r=g","magazine_blocks_category":"\u00c9conomie<\/a>","yoast_head":"\nTaux directeur de BAM : prolonger la \u201cpause\u201d ou l\u2019interrompre ? 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